Foster's poll cites 'dead heat' in 14th District
February 13, 2008
(Beacon News) — A poll sponsored by Democrat Bill Foster shows him within striking distance of Republican Jim Oberweis in the 14th Congressional District special election.
The telephone survey of 525 "likely voters," conducted in the five days after the Feb. 5 dual congressional primaries, showed Republican Oberweis leading 45 percent to Foster's 43 percent.
Foster's camp finds significance not in the margin, but in the bigger picture.
"This is kind of an earthquake," Foster spokesman Tom Bowen said Tuesday, referring to the traditional GOP foundation across the 14th District. "They should be leading by 10 points ... because he's known by more people and he's Republican."
Oberweis spokesman Bill Pascoe responded, "There are too many unknowns regarding this survey for us to determine its credibility -- the composition of the survey sample, the wording and the order of the questions, and other factors can all affect the results of a survey."
As part of the survey, conducted by Global Strategy Group, participants were asked their party preference and then whether they would support either a Democrat or Republican on March 8, the date of the special election.
Of the respondents, 41 percent said Democrat and 40 percent Republican. Given that result, and the narrow difference between responses for the actual candidates, Bowen described the abbreviated race as a "dead heat" in a district that gave retired Republican Rep. Dennis Hastert 60 percent of the vote in 2006.
Bowen was quick to point out the survey's makeup.
"The sample was much more Republican than Democrat by at least five points," he said.
The March 8 special election will determine who will fill out the remainder of Hastert's term, until January 2009. The fall general election then will determine the Fox Valley's new congressman, with a term beginning in January 2009.
Bowen declined to say how much the poll cost the Foster campaign or if any others are planned before the March 8 election. Campaign finance records show Foster spent nearly $21,000 on a poll in April.
Also Tuesday, the candidates exchanged barbs over another round of TV spots based on claims about the other's Iraq stance.
Oberweis' Web site briefly featured an ad called "White Flag" that chastises Foster for a recently released "negative ad" and "hiding his real position" on the war.
Foster's camp expected to launch a response commercial today that again calls out Oberweis for suggesting troops will remain in Iraq for another 10 years.